Analyst Predicts ‘Uptober’ Rally for Bitcoin Regardless of Fed’s FOMC Decision

Bitcoin traded at $116,236 as of 14:04 UTC on Sept. 17, up about 1% in the past 24 hours, holding above a key level as markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.

Analysts' comments

Dean Crypto Trades noted on X that bitcoin is only about 7% above its post-election local peak, while the S&P 500 has risen 9% and gold has surged 36% during the same period. He said bitcoin has compressed more than those assets, making it likely to lead the next larger move, though it could form a “lower high” before extending further. He added that ether could join in once it breaks $5,000 and enters price discovery.

Lark Davis pointed to bitcoin’s history around September FOMC meetings, saying every September decision since 2020 — except during the 2022 bear market — has preceded a strong rally. He stressed that the pattern is less about the Fed’s rate choice itself and more about seasonal dynamics, arguing that bitcoin tends to thrive in this period heading into “Uptober.”

CoinDesk Research's technical analysis

According to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model, bitcoin rose about 0.9% during the Sept. 16–17 analysis window, climbing from $115,461 to $116,520. BTC reached a session high of $117,317 at 07:00 UTC on Sept. 17 before consolidating.

Following that peak, bitcoin tested the $116,400–$116,600 range multiple times, confirming it as a short-term support zone. In the final hour of the session, between 11:39 and 12:38 UTC, BTC attempted a breakout: prices moved narrowly between $116,351 and $116,376 before spiking to $116,551 at 12:34 on higher volume. This confirmed a consolidation-breakout pattern, though the gains were modest.

Overall, bitcoin remains firm above $116,000, with support around $116,400 and resistance near $117,300.

Latest 24-hour and one-month chart analysis

The latest 24-hour CoinDesk Data chart, ending 14:04 UTC on Sept. 17, shows BTC at $116,236 after retreating from intraday highs near $117,295. The price has consolidated in the $116,000–$116,500 band, underscoring short-term support.

The one-month chart shows bitcoin climbing from lows near $108,000 in late August to recent highs above $117,000. The trend remains upward, though the past few sessions show consolidation, suggesting the market is pausing before its next move.